Sunday, May 31, 2020

Exceptionalism

Day after day, it seems, things get WORSE in America. Demonstrations, protests, riots, looting, violence in response to another black man being murdered by police. And then there's the Coronavirus pandemic we're all living through too. I almost don't know what to say anymore.

In regards to the civil unrest, it's terrible, on so many levels. Obviously the death of George Floyd was murder, plain and simple. Do I think that officer set out to murder a black man that day? No. But I do think he had blatant disregard for Floyd's life. He used his power to keep his neck down and it resulted in death. And those few minutes of terrible police action had now resulted in several days of protests and rioting. And more loss of life. And billions of dollars in property loss and damage. Our country is fucked up. Don't know what else to say.

As for the Pandemic, that ain't going much better either. We're at about 105,000 deaths in this country and nearing 2,000,000 confirmed cases. The real number is probably at least 8x that with all the asymptomatic people out there. Yes, the spread has slowed a bit. And now businesses are starting to "re-open". It may not lead to massive outbreaks because I believe in the Summer that will slow the spread a bit also. But it's pretty clear this virus isn't going away on it's own. The characteristics of it lead me to believe it's going to be around for a LONG TIME. We may never get below 10,000 daily cases again. And I highly doubt we'll get below 1,000. Maybe late Summer if we're lucky. But I'm telling you come November things are going to get BAD. I just know it.

Sunday, May 17, 2020

The "Re-Opening" of America

It seems every blog post I make my mindset about the future gets more dire. It's mid May and almost every state is in some sort of "re-opening" phase. Yet average daily cases accross the country haven't really trended downward if you exclude New York (and have BARELY trended downward if you don't). So... what's going on here? It's quite obvious. People are suffering. Many small business owners want to open up shop and get some revenue flowing. But, it's way bigger than that. Loud voices on the Right are clamering to open up the economy. Like we can "go back to normal" if only Democratic governors would give people their "freedom". To be fair, there are many arguements for re-starting the economy. But not a lot of folks are saying what's obvious. If there's upward momentum this Fall then Trump has a better chance of winning election. Of course the problem with all this is that an extra few hundred thousand Americans will die. Right now we're sitting at about 90,000. I'd be SHOCKED if by the end of the year that number isn't norther of 300,000. And I'm revising my long term prediction to 500,000-1,000,000 by the end of next year. And these are only Americans mind you. Worldwide maybe 5 million? Hard to say what the "official" numbers could be because so many nations aren't reporting deaths accurately (including my own).

So, where does all this leave us? I think as a society we're going down the path of so many other societal issues. Basically, as long as it happens to SOMEONE ELSE than I'm fine with it. But if it effects MY FAMILY, then "Why didn't someone do something!" Thousands of elderly people will die. Thousands of minority people will die. Thousands of essential workers will die. Yes, some of those people would have died of other things this year. But most not. But that's the price we're going to pay as a society so we can go to the beach I guess. And when this virus comes "back" (it still hasn't left) with a vengeous later this year the economy will suffer even more.

What I have to do is somehow focus on living my best/healthiest life. I'm not doing too well at that. Despite the fact that my life on the surface seems pretty well equiped to deal with something like this, I'm still struggling a bit. I just too the paid leave from my work because all the folks on the bus were stressing me out. I need to do what I did almost four years ago when Trump first got elected. Soon after that I started running and doing races. And I got in the best shape of my life. But in the last couple years I've put on about 60lbs and hardly run anymore. I'm literally shaking my head as I type this. We'll see what tomorrow brings I suppose.

Saturday, May 2, 2020

Government

It's May 2, 2020. There's now over 66,000 dead Americans due to COVID-19. And that's probably an under count because of all the people who died in their homes at the beginning of this Pandemic.

States have started "opening up". No, not because the virus is going away. It's because white people are getting restless at home and their "way of life" is threatened. They want to go to the beach, or hang out with friends, go to the salon. And some, want to actually work. (Although I think this is a small minority because I think most don't actually have jobs to go back to, nor do they really like working. Many of these "protesters" are just privileged a-holes that are using the moment to promote their Trumpian beliefs.) Anyway, I digress. We are really screwing this up. Do I have all the answers? Obviously not. There are so many factors to take into account in every action we take. That goes for government and individuals. But overall, the United States government (especially the Federal gov't) has been screwing this up day after day. The number of Corona Virus cases has stayed relatively steady the past month yet several states are trying to "get back to normal". They're only going to make things worse. I think if we had a national stay at home policy that had went into around mid-May or so we could have really slowed the spread down. And the "opening up" could have been more robust. The way we're doing it now is going to lead to a lot of going in and out of lockdown.

And I'm not even talking about what's likely coming in the Fall. This virus is not going away this Summer. Best case scenario is that it dies down to relatively low numbers and it takes a while to ramp up again in the Fall. But honestly, it looks like it's going to stay steady for a while so when the weather turns again it's going to come back with a vengeance. Meat plants and factories. Nursing homes, schools, large gatherings. They are all going to be prime targets for this thing. Americans aren't good at planning for the unexpected. Hell, we're not good at planning for the EXPECTED, which is what this is. I'm sticking to my prediction that this thing will kill over 200,000 Americans by the time this is all said and done.

And guess who might still be President when that happens? Right now I'd say Joe Biden is a slight favorite to win but who really knows what's going to happen in six months. Will we even have an election? One thing is for sure, Donald Trump will not go quietly. Even if he loses he'll be bitching and moaning the whole time that people are trying to convince him to leave. He'll make up shit about a "rigged" election or "inconsistencies" in voting. He's already laid out the playbook. I wouldn't be surprised if there is an armed rebellion and many Americans are killed because of him. He will be judged by history as the worst President of all time. I guess that's my saving grace?

Peanut

Tonight I lost a friend. His name was Peanut. He was a really sweet cat. His original name was Zero. But when I first met him I thought his ...