Pandemic

So... today is April 9, 2020. I wanted to get my thoughts down on the goings on in this world so I can look back and see how I viewed things. Anyone reading this obviously knows there's a Pandemic going on right now. And the effects of it will shape how humans live FOREVER. Hopefully we can all learn a few things to avoid the missteps... but I doubt it.

With the prevalence of media and virtually EVERYONE being on the internet there will be plenty of content for historians to peruse to get a feel for what this time was actually like. From a personal perspective I consider myself VERY lucky. So far (as far as I know) I have not contacted COVID-19. We seem to be in a "peak" time so there's still a good chance I'll get it. I give it a greater than 50% chance of that happening. But... at least I have a secure job. There were nearly 17 million unemployment insurance applicants in the past three weeks. That is a TON. This economy is going into a Depression. And we have a buffoon as a President that doesn't know basic math, much less human decency. I'm worried about my fellow Americans and this country. I also know that there's enough good people in America that we'll survive. But it's going to be a bumpy ride for the next several years.

As of this moment there are nearly 1.6 million cases worldwide and 465,000 in the United States. FiveThirtyEight.com estimates that testing is only "catching" around 12 percent of actual cases in the U.S. If that's the case there is closer to 4 million Americans that have been/are infected. Right now almost 17,000 deaths in this country. If the 4 million number is accurate that means the death rate is less than 0.5% in reality. And if you do the math with regards to elderly and people with underlying conditions that means the likelihood of someone under 60 in relatively good health of getting COVID-19 AND actually dying is probably less than 1/1000. Now, what does that REALLY MEAN? I don't know, but I'm pretty sure the Trump administration has at least a couple of math people that are going to roll out these statistics in the coming weeks. Throw in the fact that African-Americans are WAY MORE likely to die that European-Americans and Trump's "base" will be feeling pretty "safe" that they won't die (at least the youngish ones and those who don't have chronic disease). None of this is to say that we shouldn't take this SERIOUSLY. We ALL should. This virus is a KILLER. I'm worried about my Mom. But knowing her, she'd probably get it and then beat it. She's a tough lady.

This whole time in history is crazy. It's hard to believe a month ago I was in Las Vegas watching my Aztecs in the Mountain West Tournament. And now we're on "stay home" orders from the governor. I'm trying to limit my time out as much as possible. But seeing that I'm a bus driver that's kind of hard.

I try not to think too much about our "President" but it's hard not to. He sucks. This is PRECISELY the reason why we shouldn't have elected him. He's going to cost this country tens of thousands of extra lives lost and will take NONE of the blame (he's never taken responsibility of anything, so he's definitely not going to start now). He's also going to try and "open up" the country soon. This is going to get really ugly. Because Trump thinks that his re-election hinges on the economy. I don't know how he thinks he's going to get progressive states like California and New York to "open up". How does that even work? Force people to go to restaurants? Even IF somehow the "curve" was flattened enough to where most people felt safe going out again life has CHANGED. A good chunk of people are not (and maybe never) going to go to a concert of sporting event again. And many people will be hesitant to even go out to eat until we have herd immunity or a vaccine. And that's not coming for at least a year.

I see Trump totally turning racist on this whole thing. He'll frame his argument with his usual dog whistles of "lazy" blacks not wanting to work. Or blame progressive states for not "opening up" when he wants them to. And even if he loses in November will he leave? If it's close then no way. Just like Bill Maher says he'll blame "irregularities" and claim he's "seeing things". And Moscow Mitch and the GOP will go along with him. It's all going to be a shit show. And what if he actually loses and leaves? Say hello to MAGA part Two in 2024!

Anyway, who knows how this all plays out? I know it's exhausting. And scary. I think that this virus isn't going to magically go away. I do think in the coming weeks there will be a lot of conservative voices downplaying it's terribledness (is that a word?) And that will lead to more and more of our most vulnerable to their death. Social distancing will go by the way side and we'll see spikes in communities when it does. And then I see in the Fall it coming back strong again. The Trump administration is now predicting around 60,000 deaths. It will be more. But he'll LIE in a way to make it sound like he was accurate. He'll say that was for June 1 or August 1 only. Or he'll go back to their earlier estimates of 100,000-240,000 deaths and say that a "WIN" because it wasn't 2.2 million. I think by the end of the year the death count will be in the 100-200k range and by the time this thing is all OVER (sometime in mid 2021, God willing) the American death toll will be well over 200,000 and maybe even half a million. I'm just going on gut feel here based on models I've seen and how the media is framing things. And how the politicians are slowing trying to get people out there again. Obviously, I'm hoping as few people get this thing and die as possible. It would be nice to get back to "normal" one day. Fingers crossed...